No deal on Brexit? – September 2018

How likely was no deal with the EU on Brexit? 

Prime Minister Theresa said the only choice was between her Chequers plan or no deal – in a BBC interview on the eve of an EU summit. 

Not unexpectedly EU president Donald Tusk said her plan wouldn’t work at that EU leaders summit three days later.

Mrs. May stood by her plan, taking a defiant stance in the face of Fleet Street newspaper headlines that claimed she had been humiliated or even ambushed by the EU.

There were other options – another referendum on the outcome of the EU talks, replacing her as prime minister, or a forced election – let alone the possibility of a changed negotiating framework under any new prime minister or government, Conservative or Labour led – none of which Mrs. May wanted.

She said she wanted her much-derided Chequers plan which would keep the UK closely aligned with the EU but outside its jurisdiction on issues such as immigration and the European Court of Justice, while keeping EU rules on trade in goods but not on services, which constitute about 80 per cent of UK trade.

Donald Tusk responded to the UK prime minister’s unusual live statement by saying she had been too hardline in her most recent actions but the door was still open to compromise.

Months before, when the Chequers plan was announced and formal negotiations resumed the EU took her negotiating stance apart. But talks continued and had already been extended to November, reinforcing a belief that the EU far preferred some kind of deal to none at all.

Mrs. May kept insisting she didn’t want a “no deal”, “hard” or “cliff edge” Brexit. But her actions could mean this is exactly where the UK is headed.

So there was much analysis of a no-deal Brexit – what it is from the anti-Brexit London Evening Standard, how it might work from Politico, various analyses from think tanks, what the public thinks.

Both the EU and the IMF issued warnings about the consequences of leaving the EU without any agreed deal.

No surprise – Chequers doomed
EU president says plan won’t work
PM stands by her plan
Fleet Street newspaper headlines
Much-derided Chequers plan
Donald Tusk says PM too hardline
EU takes negotiating stance apart
No deal Brexit – what it is
No deal Brexit – how might it work
Think tank analyses
What the public thinks
No deal warning – the EU
No deal warning – the IMF