From David Worsfold, AEJ UK Treasurer, at the AEJ International Congress 2023
The promised session in the International AEJ Congress programme offering fresh insight into the progress and prospects for the war in Ukraine lived up to expectations when Ilya Ponamariov stepped up to the podium at Vlora University.
Ponamariov, aged 47, is a pivotal figure among Russians opposed to the war and to Russian President Vladmir Putin. He was elected to the Russian State Duma in 2007, having served a period as chief information officer of the new Russian Communist Party, while founding a string of start-up tech businesses.
Once in the Duma, took charge of the Parliamentary committee supervising digital regulation but as he became increasingly active in opposing Putin after the 2011 elections, that committee was disbanded. In 2014 he was the only member of the Duma to vote against the annexation of Crimea, denying Putin the opportunity of presenting it as a unanimous decision. For Ponamariov this signalled the start of exile from his homeland as the ruling party hit him with a barrage of corruption allegations, all of which he denies.
Now he is based in Kyiv, has Ukrainian citizenship and runs the largest anti-Putin Russian language broadcaster, February Morning, claiming to reach a significant proportion of the 20% of Russian citizens estimated to have regular access to online media.
When the bombs started falling on Ukraine on 24 February 2022 he joined the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Force and has since established strong links with the three Russian regiments he says are fighting with Ukraine and the disparate partisan forces in occupied Ukraine and within Russia itself. This includes the Wagner Group which he says “has certain lines of interaction with us and the Ukrainians”.
For Ponamariov, regime change offers the only solution to the current war. Other solutions fall far short of achieving a lasting peace.
“Even restoring the 1991 borders will not end the war. It will just move the frontline to the border, ” he said.
Removing Putin is the key: “Now he can only be defeated. You cannot negotiate a settlement with Putin”.
He was scathing of suggestions that Crimea could form part of a ceasefire deal which would see it remain in Russian hands: “It is a plague that exists inside and outside Russia and it is counterproductive”.
Although grateful for western support for Ukraine’s resistance, he did not spare the world from criticism, slamming the European Union for what he sees as a commitment to Ukraine that falls short, saying it “does not have a coherent foreign policy”. We warned that any lessening of support for Ukraine would not bring an end to the war as Ukrainians “will fight with their bare hands if necessary”.
He said the restrictions on how NATO weapons could be used were hurting Ukraine: “Russia can fire missiles into Ukraine but Ukraine is prevented from firing missiles back into Russia”.
This does not prevent Russians launching attacks from within Russia, however, something Ponamariov says groups in his network are actively promoting, launching drone attacks and sabotaging critical infrastructure.
While he claims success on the ground for his allies, he is looking beyond the short-term need for violent direct action to overthrow the regime in Moscow: “We are thinking about the future and how this nightmare will end”.
This includes creating a shadow Russian Parliament with representatives from most regions and several political groups. This has created a new constitution – which guarantees free speech – along with a provisional municipal structure ready to roll out if the opportunity arises.
As for Putin’s own future, he was far from optimistic: “We want Putin to stop the war, go to prison and face a very fair and public trial in the Hague” but felt the chances of that happening are very small as “his inner circle will kill him
first”.
